State-by-State poll released by Rasmussen Saturday shows 240 electors in the Republican column including: 168 safe; 21 likely and 51 leaning. Democrats total 268 including: 157 safe; 33 likely, and 70 leaning. Toss-ups total 38. Thirteen states with 159 Electoral Votes are either a pure Toss-Up or just slightly leaning to one party or the other. These are likely to be the early battleground states of Election 2008: Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), Michigan (17), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), and New Hampshire (4).
Safely Democrat states include: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3). Safely Republican include: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).
Although not empirical but more emotional Rasmussen Markets data shows that the Democratic candidate is currently given a 59.2 % chance of winning the White House in November. Its daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Saturday shows John McCain with a very slight advantage over Barack Obama, 47% to 43%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, the results are the same–McCain 47% Clinton 43%.
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